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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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