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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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