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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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