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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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