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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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