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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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