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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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