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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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