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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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