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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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