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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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