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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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