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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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