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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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