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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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