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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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