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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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