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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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