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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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