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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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