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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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