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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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