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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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