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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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