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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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