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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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