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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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