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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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