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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 October 20
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Friday, 23 October 20
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KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Friday, 23 October 20
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The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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