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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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