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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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