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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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