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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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