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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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