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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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