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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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