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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
 The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher ...
Friday, 16 October 09
INDONESIA EXPORTED 19,194,857 MT OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER 2009 - SOURCES
COALspot.com (Indonesia): Indonesia exported 19,194,857 MT of coal in September 2009. Out of total exported quantity, South Korea imported abou ...
Friday, 16 October 09
NAVIGATING THROUGH STORMY WATERS
To Theodore E Veniamis, the President of the Union of Greek Shipowners, the current turmoil in world shipping is due to the cyclical nature of marit ...
Friday, 16 October 09
COAL INDIA RAISES PRICE BY 11%
Trak reported that, State-owned Coal India Ltd (CIL) has raised the price of coal produced by its subsidiaries by an average of 11 percent effective ...
Thursday, 15 October 09
SOUTH AFRICAN MINING COMPANY ACCEPTED $92 MILLION BID FOR COAL MINE STAKE IN SIYANDA COAL
Paguntaka reported that, Sentula Mining Ltd. gained in Johannesburg trading after the South African company accepted a 686 million-rand ($92 million ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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