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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Thursday, 15 October 09
GOVT TO CAP COAL EXPORTS AT 150 MILLION TONS A YEAR
The Jakarta Post reported that, The government plans to cap coal exports at around 150 million tons a year in a bid to guarantee supply for domestic ...
Thursday, 15 October 09
AUSTRALIAN MINING COMPANIES REPORTED FINDING 1.5 BILLION COAL MINE DEPOSIT IN MOZAMBIQUE
Paguntaka reported that, Mozambique is a country that has the potential mining areas are very rich. Many mining companies who want to invest in the ...
Wednesday, 14 October 09
INDONESIA POWER FIRM SIGNS LOAN AGREEMENTS FOR OVER $1 BLN
Reuters reported that, Indonesia's state electricity firm PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) has raised more than $1 billion from a group of banks ...
Wednesday, 14 October 09
LARSEN & TOUBRO MAY ENTER POWER GENERATION BUSINESS IN INDIA
Bloomberg reported that, Larsen & Toubro Ltd., India’s biggest engineering company, said it is considering entering the power generation b ...
Wednesday, 14 October 09
INDONESIA MULLS TO LIMIT COAL EXPORT
China View reported that, The Indonesian government planned to limit coal export of up to 150 million tons per year due to the growing coal demand i ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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