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Saturday, 31 October 09
PRODUCERS BENEFIT FROM COAL'S TIGHT SUPPLY AND STRONG DEMAND
 The Jakarta Post reported that, The outlook for Indonesian coal producers appears promising with strong volume growth coming from both the domestic and export markets.
Despite the delayed completion of the 10,000 megawatts (MW) coal-fired steam power plant (PLTU) program, we expect to see additional electricity capacity starting in the fourth quarter of 2009. PLTU Labuan (2x300 MW) was scheduled to operate its first unit in September 2009 and the second unit by December 2009.
PLTU Rembang (2x315 MW) and Indramayu (2x330 MW) should start to operate by January 2010. As nine out of 10 projects in Java-Bali are now in their construction stages, there should be a total add-on capacity of 6,830 MW by the end of 2010. Six PLTU projects (total capacity162 MW) outside the Java-Bali region have already started the construction stage in the fourth quarter of this year with an additional 5 to follow suit.
The Government of Indonesia has finally approved the coal volume required for the domestic market obligation (DMO) at 75 million tons per year starting from 2010, 10.3 percent higher year-on-year from 68 million tons of domestic consumption estimated for 2009.
The volume set for the DMO would amount to 30 percent of the 2010 total estimate for coal production at 250 million tons or up 8.7 percent year-on-year from the 2009 estimate of 230 million tons (chart 1). PLN itself has signed 20-year coal supply contracts, effective once the PLTUs are operational, amounting to 30m tons per year of low-rank coal.
We foresee that the implementation of the DMO has limited the flexibility for coal producers to aggressively penetrate the export market. On top of that, the government has recently revealed its intention to apply a restriction on export quotas at 150 million tons per year starting from 2010.
The regulations would also require each coal producer to allocate 25 percent of their total coal production for the domestic market, or to face penalties in the form of restrictions on their exports.
We see, however, that this last regulation might not be necessary due to the anticipated increase in the volume of coal production going forward, exceeding the domestic demand requirements.
On a more positive note, the government seems willing to accommodate Indonesian coal producers' wishes for minor interventions in regulating the sales price for coal under the DMO provisions. The sales price will be with reference to the international market price to avoid high spreads between export and domestic pricing.
Based on the Newcastle Index, the year-to-date coal price has averaged US$70.7 per ton. Despite a downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2008, coal prices have been relatively steady throughout 2009.
We believe that the price of coal has found its new equilibrium at current levels, supported by stronger demand for higher energy needs mostly in the South East Asian region. Hence, we now expect the coal price to average US$75/t in 2010.
Government also plans to cut the royalty tax rate (DPHB) on low calorific value coal. The proposed DPHB rate is 9 percent for coal with CV<5,000kcal/kg (vis-*-vis 13.5 percent previously) and 7.5 percent for CV<4,500kcal/kg.
We see that upon implementation, lower royalty rates will mean incentives towards growth expectations in the sector.
Stronger domestic demand starting from 2010 paired with recovery of global demand will provide higher volume support for demand for both thermal and coking coal. In our view India will provide the highest growth in thermal coal demand, boosting imports by about 18% to 40m tons beginning this year, in line with the government's plan to double coal-fired electricity generation capacity by 2017.
Indonesia has also made preparations to start the 10,000 MW program phase II which is scheduled to start in 2012 and to operate by 2014.
We estimate coal-fired power plants will take around 48 percent from the total portion of 9,963 MW. Furthermore, coal supply may not grow at the same pace as demand due to export restrictions set on major coal exporters, such as Vietnam and China to secure their domestic needs.
Supported by the fact that the China government has decided to reduce its export quota by 50 percent from 40 million tons to 20 million tons.
As one of the world's major coal exporters, Indonesia will certainly have the upper hand in the tightening supply of coal.
Source:The Jakarta Post
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Wednesday, 14 October 09
SA'S COAL OUTPUT LIKELY TO RISE BY 2011, BOOSTED BY WATERBERG MINES
Mining weekly reported that, South Africa's coal production will struggle to meet demand over the next few years, but coal production could likely ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
INDONESIA'S BAYAN SEES 2010 COAL OUTPUT UP 42 PCT
Reuters reported that, Indonesian coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN.JK) said on Tuesday it expects its coal output to increase by 42 percent i ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
STRAITS ASIA UPBEAT ON MEETING 2009 COAL OUTPUT
Reuters reported that, Singapore-listed coal miner Straits Asia is still optimistic about meeting its coal output target of 9 million tonnes this ye ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
THERMAL COAL DEMAND IN CHINA DRIVES PRICE INCREASES
Metal Miner reported that, Thermal coal prices have been falling this year; contrary to many other commodities, both metals and energy that hit bott ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
JSW ENERGY SCOUTING FOR PARTNERS, ACQUISITIONS
Business-Standard reported that, JSW Energy is planning to become an integrated power company by bringing in a partner for its transmission business ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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