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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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