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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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