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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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