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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
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