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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
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Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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