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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
Friday, 10 April 20
INDIA'S BULKS SUPPLY CHAIN TAKES A HIT DURING LOCKDOWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Businesses are shut, and the supply chain is ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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