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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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