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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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