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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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