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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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