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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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