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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
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Showing 911 to 915 news of total 6871 |
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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