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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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